EVS forecasts that Vietnam's CPI in 2022 will increase to 4 - 4.5%

EVS forecasts that Vietnam's CPI in 2022 will increase to 4 - 4.5%


The average CPI increase of 2.1% over the same period in the first 4 months of the year is not too high thanks to the Government's close policies to limit the import of inflation which are relatively successful. 

Therefore, Everest Securities (EVS) continues to maintain its forecast that Vietnam's CPI in 2022 will increase slightly to 4 - 4.5% for the reason:

World fuel prices cooled down more slowly than expected. In addition, the prolonged supply chain congestion caused the prices of input items for production to increase hotly and show no sign of cooling down. 

Besides, the demand for goods has recovered when Vietnam has gradually overcome the COVID-19 pandemic. Emphasizing that inflation continues to be a factor that needs attention in the coming time.

Public investment is behind schedule due to high raw material costs. Realized investment capital from the State budget in April 2022 is estimated at 33,500 billion VND (up 6.6% over the same period). In general, in the first four months of 2022, investment capital realized from the State budget is estimated at 109,600 billion VND, equaling 20.6% of the year plan and increasing by 9.1% over the same period last year. 

The progress of disbursement of public investment is relatively slow partly due to the high price of raw materials causing projects to be halted. EVS expects the disbursement speed of public investment capital will be significantly improved in the coming time.

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